Yoav's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.68
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Yoav bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ1,800
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ800
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind suffer a significant data breach by the end of 2023?NOṀ500
70%
80%
- Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?YESṀ1,150
- Am I pretty? 🥺 People always call me ugly 😔 😞 ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESṀ1,000
- Am I pretty? 🥺 People always call me ugly 😔 😞 ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESṀ500
90%
95%
97%