wylderai's calibration
Grade: S, Score: -0.03
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when wylderai bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ40
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ10
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ10
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- [CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 37.810718, -122.424848? (California)YESβαΉ2,063
- [CAPTURE THE FLAG] Will anyone from the comments go to 37.810718, -122.424848? (California)YESβαΉ1,273
- Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 15 days from Oct 2 - Oct 20?YESβαΉ1,000
97%
99%
- Will Taylor Swift be the #1 global artist on Spotify charts for the week 20-26 October?YESβαΉ10,000
- Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 15 days from Oct 2 - Oct 20?YESβαΉ7,000
- Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 15 days from Oct 2 - Oct 20?YESβαΉ5,000