wylderai's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.23
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when wylderai bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ40
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ10
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ10
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Am I pretty? π₯Ί People always call me ugly π π ---------- (resolves like "the market")YESβαΉ428
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ150
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ150
60%
70%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ200
- Should I split in "Split or Steal: Can two randomly-chosen shareholders cooperate?" ?YESβαΉ200
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ186
80%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ300
- Will Trump be indicted by March 31, 2023?YESβαΉ264
- [Anti-Whale Aktion] Will the final point difference in Isaac King's Whales vs Minnows market be greater than 50?YESβαΉ143
90%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ500
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOβαΉ430
- [Anti-Whale Aktion] Will the final point difference in Isaac King's Whales vs Minnows market be greater than 20?YESβαΉ349
95%
97%