wustep's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.14
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when wustep bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable in the US by the end of 2023?NOṀ330
- Will Instagram (META) new text-based app 'Threads' overtake Twitter before 2024?NOṀ233
- 46. Will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30 at the end of 2023?NOṀ232
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%