w ow's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when w ow bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- 15. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ100
- Will DeSantis announce his presidential candidacy by the end of June?YESṀ50
- Will it be revealed that Audrey Hale, the Nashville Covenant School shooter's motive includes getting back at religion?NOṀ50