Will I have more than Ṁ500 in my balance by Sept. 26th?
resolved Sep 28


-At this point in time, I highly doubt I will buy any mana. I very rarely buy in app purchases.

-I'm a new user, not much experience.


-I have a lot of free time at work to research and collect those little bonuses.

-I'm going to attempt to learn more about betting systems, statistics, and how Manifold works. Exciting!

-I guess someone could wire me Ṁ? This feels a bit cheaty/unlikely but not impossible.

Will resolve YES if I have Ṁ500 or more in my balance at 5PM on September 26th, 2023. Will resolve NO if I have Ṁ499 or less.

EDIT: This question will close one hour before the resolve, at 4PM September 26th.

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predicted YES

So, this should resolve YES according to the chart of your balance at https://manifold.markets/willMay

See if I bet it too low then someone is incentivized to wire you mana to make it resolve YES lol

My possibly-terrible advice: bet no more than a daily bonus in mana per day every day in the absence of a special edge or strong confidence. On markets that you feel very confident in, bet 50 mana tops. On all others, bet 10-20 mana. This minimizes your exposure to risk, and in my case, provided training wheels to prevent me from risking too much.