Will summer 2024 have the Earth's hottest ever recorded air temperature?
Dec 31

It's been a hot year. However, will next year the peak temperature anywhere in the world, over the summer (defined 20th June to 22nd September) be higher than any previous record? If so, this market resolves YES.

I am hoping people can take this in good faith: I clearly mean air temperature as a result of the weather, and reported by a metrological society (which itself can be reported in a trustworthy news site).

Yes, a nuclear bomb that detonates would have a heat the surrounding air temperature more than found in a desert, but you know that's not what I mean.

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What will happen to this question if the 1913 Death Valley record is decertified? Would the temperature in question need to beat the 1913 record, or the highest certified record at the end of the summer?


@EvanDaniel However you do a Max(.) It has to be max

@EvanDaniel sorry I misread, well at the time of market closing it is whatever is the max

One possible shortcoming of this question, the temperature you're looking for is globally focused but the summer date range is not globally applicable. For example summer where I live is December through February.

Curious whether you'd consider expanding the date range to just the whole of 2024?

predicts NO

@JulianLees Can't change it now, we have skin in the game!

For the record, my research told me a great many of the hottest temperatures on record historically have happened in this three month period, especially July and August.

@Eliza fair enough for those with positions already and for what it's worth I'm not so concerned with the resolution or basis of the question either. What you've found out may explain David's reason for setting the question this way. However I'm still comfortable to perhaps state the obvious that summer also exists in the southern hemisphere albeit at a different time of year πŸ˜„

Also, given the results of your research, perhaps there's little difference between the proposed expansion to all of 2024 and the current question anyways.

Perhaps a good case for another question πŸ€”πŸ˜‚

@JulianLees I very intentionally biased the question! So no I wouldn't change it anyway ;)

@wilkess πŸ˜„ at least it was conscious. Southerners like me might develop some insecurities otherwise

A unicorn southern winter or autumn temperature going to take this out now out of climatic spite πŸ¦„

60% by 2029, any reason half of that probability should be concentrated in a few months next year?