Will summer 2024 have the Earth's hottest ever recorded air temperature?
closes 2024

It's been a hot year. However, will next year the peak temperature anywhere in the world, over the summer (defined 20th June to 22nd September) be higher than any previous record? If so, this market resolves YES.

I am hoping people can take this in good faith: I clearly mean air temperature as a result of the weather, and reported by a metrological society (which itself can be reported in a trustworthy news site).

Yes, a nuclear bomb that detonates would have a heat the surrounding air temperature more than found in a desert, but you know that's not what I mean.

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Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ100 of NO

60% by 2029, any reason half of that probability should be concentrated in a few months next year?