Will Mattel (owners of Barbie) have more than 25% extra sales in 2023 than 2022?
19
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370
Mar 25
3%
chance

Will the advertisement that was the Barbie film actually translate into substantial new sales?

The sales report for 2022 is here https://s201.q4cdn.com/696436908/files/doc_financials/2022/q4/a8e997d5-5ae2-4b5b-be6c-54db4ce61f91.pdf (maybe more friendly version ishttps://www.statista.com/statistics/198763/net-sales-of-us-toy-manufacturer-mattel-since-2006/#:~:text=Global%20net%20sales%20of%20Mattel,make%20a%20comeback%20in%202021. )

I will resolve yes if the next report is states a net sales volume >25% higher than in 2022. Happy to accept help nearer the time to ensure a reliable source, but I think it should be relatively straightforward.

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bought Ṁ200 of NO

https://investors.mattel.com/news/news-details/2023/Mattel-Reports-Third-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results/default.aspx

Q3 sales were up 9 percent. Per my understanding, that is a strong showing. Nevertheless, it's nowhere near 25% (which is a crazy large amount of growth to come from one event when selling things in meatspace).

Further:

For the first nine months of the year, Net Sales declined 5% as reported, and 6% in constant currency, versus the prior year’s first nine months.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%
bought Ṁ25 of NO

My extremely unscientific data: A friend’s 10-year-old daughter did not like the movie nearly as much as she expected, because the themes went over her head. So the overlap between people who get the movie, and people who might buy dolls, is far too small.

bought Ṁ19 of YES

@MatthewRitter anecdata is what it is all about :D