Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if "One Battle After Another" wins Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards ceremony on March 15, 2026, held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC. Resolution will be determined by official Academy announcements at the ceremony. All voting is conducted by secret online ballot and tabulated by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Background

Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" set a record with seven SAG Actor Awards nominations, solidifying its Oscars frontrunner status. The film won best picture and best director at the Critics' Choice Awards. The film is leading the Best Picture race, and it is not particularly close. It is projected to receive 14 Oscar nominations.

The primary competition comes from its studio sibling, Ryan Coogler's "Sinners", which is currently projected to land 15 Oscar nominations — a total that would eclipse the Academy's all-time record. This is beginning to feel a little bit like La La Land versus Moonlight again, referring to the 2017 Oscars upset.

Considerations

Usually, to win best picture at the Oscars, a movie needs a SAG ensemble nomination. Only four films in the last three decades have managed the feat without that. Last year, "Conclave" took best ensemble, but Sean Baker's "Anora" won best picture at the Academy Awards, demonstrating that guild predictors don't always align with final Academy voting. In the 2016 season, the guilds rallied behind spectacle and technical dominance, only for the Academy's evolving, increasingly international electorate to execute a decisive course correction on Oscar night.