Will my company meet the goals required for a company trip?
My company sets goals for the year and evaluates them in October. If we meet those goals, the entire company is taken on a trip to Cancun. In 2021 we were able to go but for three years prior we did not. I'm setting the initial probability to 70% since I've heard rumors that the numbers are good so far. If the trip is cancelled for some other reason (ie covid) I'll still resolve based on the goals themselves.
Haha, to think the Manifold team went to the Bahamas even after miserably failing our DAU goals. Maybe the thing to do is to make our onsites conditional on our goals as well! Or: next time we miss our goals, our onsites become work-only, no one gets to go to the beach and drink daiquiries.