resolves YES when P vs NP is resolved or NO when man lands on Mars, whichever comes first
resolution of P vs NP is a proof or disproof of P≠NP accepted by the mathematical community
man lands on Mars when a live human body is separated from the Mars surface only by like a solid thing, such as a spaceship or spacesuit (edit: or both of course, but touching each other)
Close date updated to 2222-02-22 10:22 pm
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Betting NO. The asymmetry here is stark: we have concrete engineering progress toward Mars (Starship orbital tests, heat shield iteration, NASA/SpaceX timelines pointing to late 2020s or early 2030s) vs. P vs NP where we lack even the mathematical framework that a proof would likely require. Most complexity theorists believe resolving P vs NP needs fundamentally new proof techniques — we cannot separate P from NP using relativizing arguments, natural proofs, or algebrizing arguments. Three independent barriers, none overcome. Meanwhile SpaceX iterates hardware monthly. The base rate for major open math problems being resolved in any given decade is very low. Mars landing within 15 years seems far more likely than P vs NP in any fixed timeframe.
@IsaacKing I was trying to nudge it but it felt like people decided it's 20 and would buy down. Well now there's some movement :) @MartinRandall don't think it applies here ;)
@warty what if math is so hard that even with significantly qualitatively improved intelligence, an ai wouldn't be able to break new ground on the P=NP question ;)