Manifold was fairly incorrect in its predictions for the 2024 US presidential election. Why was that?

Manifold was considerably worse than real-money markets such as Polymarket, and very similar to forecasts like FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver. It seemed to notably underestimate Trump's performance, especially in swing states (Manifold had Harris winning MI at about 65% on election day). I have noticed a very large sentiment in the Manifold community that is eager to disregard the accuracy of those who did make better predictions, oftentimes dismissing them as "lucky guesses". Is that really the case? Can we assume that Manifold will do better next time around, or has real-money betting taken over as the most reliable predictor for future elections?

How this will resolve:

Until 1/20, traders can bet on the options provided and will be able to add their own options (I will prevent the adding of options when it reaches 25). Once the market is closed, I will make one comment for each option on the market. The top three comments in like margin (likes - dislikes) will resolve YES and the remaining options will resolve NO.

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Thank you for participating! DM or comment with any questions.

• Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Like/Dislike Period: Until January 31, users can like or dislike any of the creator's comments based on their contribution to Manifold's incorrect prediction.

  • Resolution Criteria: At the end of the month, the three options whose comments have the largest net likes (likes - dislikes) will resolve YES. The remaining options will resolve NO.