Explanation

In other words, this market asks how many states or jurisdictions the loser will have needed to flip to win the election (in order of how close they were).

For example, in 2020, Biden's tipping point states were WI and PA. He won Pennsylvania to reach exactly 269 electoral votes and won Wisconsin to pass 270 and win the election. However, he also won two more states with a smaller margin than either (GA and AZ).

This question would resolve YES for 4 in 2020 because Trump would have needed to flip the 4 closest states (GA, AZ, WI, PA) to win the election with an electoral majority. It would not have resolved YES to 3, because flipping the three closest states would only have gotten him to 269, not past 270.

Resolution Criteria

The question will resolve to the number of jurisdictions (counting begins from smallest percentage margin of victory) won by the candidate who has won the most apportioned electoral votes, that would need to flip for the losing candidate to win the most.

Fine Print

At the time of this question, jurisdictions with Electoral College votes apportioned to them are Washington, D.C., Maine at large, Maine 1st Congressional District (CD), Maine 2nd CD, Nebraska at large, Nebraska 1st CD, Nebraska 2nd CD, Nebraska 3rd CD, and the other 48 states.

For purposes of this question, all Electoral College votes from a jurisdiction are considered to be fully awarded to whichever candidate receives the most votes. Therefore, faithless electors do not affect this question's resolution.

This question will be resolved using the final official vote totals from the relevant election authorities of each jurisdiction between Election Day and final certification. However, suppose preliminary results show a candidate leading by at least a 10% margin with over 80% of votes counted, and this lead is conclusively indicative of the outcome. In that case, that jurisdiction will be counted early for purposes of resolving the question.

If legal disputes or recounts delay certification, the resolution will use the final vote counts as of the issuance of Certificates of Ascertainment, which for the 2024 election is scheduled for December 11, 2024.

If no candidate receives 270 apportioned electoral votes (such as through a 269-269 tie or a 3rd party candidate winning electoral votes), then no jurisdiction is the tipping point, sending the election to Congress, and this question resolves as 0.

In any jurisdiction using the elimination ranked vote counting method (e.g. Maine and Alaska), this question only considers the final round of counting.