See the pinned comment for the full list of "expected" results
For fun! Can YOU predict the election perfectly?
Despite Manifold having an infinite amount of ways for users to predict the upcoming US presidential race, I wanted to create a system for people to predict every state in the race perfectly.
My "contest" will not have a Mana prize, because I decided to use polls instead of markets so that every user can predict only one combination.
I will create three polls, each with a set of states. Each poll will have every outcome for each state. I decided to use multiple polls with fewer options rather than creating a single poll with 60+ options.
Poll 1: Outcomes for Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Poll 2: Outcomes for Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada
Poll 3 (This poll): Will any other state (NOT GA/PA/WI/MI/AZ/NV) surprise (vote against the expected party)?
Vote cautiously on all polls, as each user has only one vote per poll! Voting will close the night before election night.
Winners will be declared based on any users who selected the correct option on every poll. (You must vote on all polls to be considered) Good luck!
DM or comment with any questions
Thank you for participating!
Expected results for non-tossup states (all states except GA, PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV)
If you voted YES on this poll, comment which states listed below you think will not vote as expected. You are allowed only one comment, which you may edit until the end of November 4. (I will monitor all edited comments)
Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine District 2, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska Statewide, Nebraska District 1, Nebraska District 3, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
Democratic: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine Statewide, Maine District 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska District 2, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington State, Washington DC
Expected results for non-tossup states (all states except GA, PA, WI, MI, AZ, NV)
If you voted YES on this poll, comment which states listed below you think will not vote as expected. You are allowed only one comment, which you may edit until the end of November 4. (I will monitor all edited comments)
Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine District 2, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska Statewide, Nebraska District 1, Nebraska District 3, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
Democratic: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine Statewide, Maine District 1, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska District 2, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington State, Washington DC