Adding the AI tag to this because TAG's USP seems to be AI and way more granular details for scoring

Background

TAG Grading is a newer collectible authentication service that uses patented technology for objective grading. Their system scores cards on a precise 1000-point scale using Photometric Stereoscopic Imaging, providing detailed Digital Image & Grading Reports (DIG) that include high-resolution images of defects and scoring breakdowns. TAG's slabs are made from UV-resistant acrylic with grades inscribed directly onto them, offering a paperless experience.

PSA (Professional Sports Authenticator) is currently the industry leader in sports card grading and authentication. Established in 1991, PSA has built a strong reputation and market presence, with PSA-graded cards typically commanding premium prices in the collectibles market.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, before December 31, 2025:

• TAG Grading surpasses PSA in total volume of items graded annually, OR

• TAG Grading surpasses PSA in market share of the collectible authentication industry, OR

• TAG Grading surpasses PSA in total revenue from authentication services

The market will resolve to NO if none of these conditions are met by December 31, 2025.

Resolution will be based on publicly available data, company announcements, industry reports, or other reliable sources that clearly demonstrate TAG Grading has overtaken PSA according to at least one of the criteria above.

Considerations

• PSA has a significant head start and established reputation in the industry, which represents a substantial barrier for TAG to overcome.

• TAG's technological approach and objective grading system could potentially disrupt the traditional authentication market.

• Market adoption rates for new grading services can be unpredictable, especially in collector communities that value established reputation.

• Industry consolidation, partnerships, or acquisitions could significantly impact the competitive landscape before the end of 2025.

Throwing in a free GPT Deep Research analysis:

Conclusion: Dominance vs. Disruption

In summary, PSA is not being overtaken by TAG Grading at this time. By all quantitative measures – market share, grading volume, revenue – PSA maintains a commanding lead and is likely to retain it in the near future. PSA’s brand is deeply embedded in the hobby’s economics, and it continues to grow (evidenced by ~78% market share in 2023 and aggressive business moves to cement its position​). TAG Grading, while not (yet) a true threat to PSA’s dominance, represents a compelling alternative that has spurred important conversations in the industry. TAG’s AI-driven, transparent grading is arguably setting a new benchmark for what collectors might expect in the future – pushing incumbents to improve their own services. The current state of the market is one of dominance with a dash of disruption: PSA is clearly dominant, but TAG (and other tech-enabled upstarts) are driving innovation and offering different value propositions that chip away at the notion that grading must be purely subjective.

Key developments underscore this dynamic. On one hand, PSA is expanding and innovating within its dominance – clearing backlogs, lowering prices again, acquiring competitors (SGC), and enhancing its offerings (like imaging and perhaps other tech integrations). These moves suggest PSA is strengthening its grip and adapting to ensure it stays number one. On the other hand, TAG is achieving milestones like grading legendary cards, rolling out new technology (e.g. plans for automated grading pods in hobby shops that instantly grade cards on-site, as announced in 2023)​, and slowly gaining a following among collectors who value what it brings. TAG’s existence has pushed dialogue about grading standards: what’s more important, consistency or tradition? The fact that some collectors are crossing cards from PSA to TAG (and vice versa) to compare results​ is a sign that TAG is being taken seriously by at least a portion of the hobby.

Looking ahead, PSA is likely to maintain dominance in the short term, given its head start and resources, but TAG’s influence may grow in specific segments. If TAG can demonstrate that its grades are as fair (or fairer) and that its slabs can hold value, it will win more converts. It may not need to “overtake” PSA to be successful; even carving out a loyal niche (say, modern cards and TCGs) could be sustainable. For PSA, the challenge will be responding to the call for greater transparency and consistency – areas TAG has made its calling card. It wouldn’t be surprising to see PSA introduce more detailed grading feedback or partially automated grading for certain card types in response to customer expectations shaped by TAG and others.

In conclusion, PSA remains the indisputable leader in the sports card grading market, and TAG Grading is not overtaking it at this time. Rather, TAG is an emerging competitor with an innovative approach that is gradually gaining traction and influencing the industry. Most experts believe PSA’s dominance will continue barring a major shift, but they also acknowledge that TAG and similar companies could slowly erode the edges of PSA’s market share if the hobby increasingly values what they offer. As of now, PSA is firmly in control – using its financial power, market trust, and even strategic acquisitions to stay on top – while TAG is a rising player to watch, driving innovation and offering collectors an alternative that, in the long run, could reshape how cards are graded across the industry.