Will Russia launch an orbital nuclear warhead (Space Nuke) in 2024?
9
51
210
2025
10%
chance

The US has said it expects Russia to launch an orbital nuclear warhead, purportedly to attack satellite systems. Putin has said Russia will do no such thing. Reuters article here: https://www.reuters.com/world/nukes-space-what-have-russia-united-states-said-2024-02-21/#:~:text=Bloomberg%20on%20Tuesday%20reported%20Russia,explosion%2C%20disabling%20scores%20of%20satellites.

Resolves "YES" if any country other than Russia confirms that Russia has successfully launched a nuclear-warhead into space in calendar year 2024. Confirmation must come in 2024 to resolve yes.

Resolves "NO" otherwise, including if Russia deploys a mock-warhead, non-nuclear warhead, or does not deploy any purported weapons into space, etc.

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