Will Max Schrems start a lawsuit against the July 2023 Data Transfer deal between US and EU before end 2024? (600 subs)
9
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Dec 31
90%
chance

This deal was struck on July 2023:

https://m-cacm.acm.org/news/274549-us-and-eu-complete-long-awaited-deal-on-sharing-data/fulltext

One of the articles suggests that Max Schrems is planning to start a new lawsuit against it. Max Schrems has won previous legal battles against EU US data transfer.

(*) This will also resolve to YES if the lawsuit is started by a group including Max Schrems or cooperating or being advised or supported by him.

Note:

I have posted another bet with the same question, but with an end date in 2023 instead of 2024:

https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-max-schrems-start-a-legal-chal-0476ab550e9a?r=dWFpcjAx

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Max Schrems:

https://x.com/maxschrems/status/1767162053939114222?s=20

Max Schrems 🇪🇺

@maxschrems

Travelling, so did not have the time to read the details of the

@EU_EDPS

decision on

@Microsoft

365 of today (https://edps.europa.eu/press-publications/press-news/press-releases/2024/european-commissions-use-microsoft-365-infringes-data-protection-law-eu-institutions-and-bodies_en).

I think a big question for all the #GDPR non-compliant software also to be discussed here: Who #pays for the damage?!

Usually it would be

@Microsoft

for providing an illegal product (and marketing it as fully compliant).

From Bing ChatGPT:

It is unclear whether Max Schrems will start legal action against the EU-US data sharing deal. However, according to a Politico article, he has said that he would likely challenge the new deal in court by the end of August 2023. He expects his complaint to come to the European Court of Justice in early 2024 2.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-signs-off-on-data-transfers-deal-with-us/

And from NOYB:

"The final text will need more time, once this arrives we will analyze it in depth, together with our US legal experts. If it is not in line with EU law, we or another group will likely challenge it. In the end, the Court of Justice will decide a third time. We expect this to be back at the Court within months from a final decision."

https://noyb.eu/en/privacy-shield-20-first-reaction-max-schrems

Third time's a charm? Just like "Safe Harbor" and "Privacy Shield", the new "TADPF" will sooner or later be challenged before the CJEU which will then assess its validity under EU law. As the fundamental problems with US surveillance law still persists, there is a high chance that it will suffer the fate of its predecessors - and will be declared void with retroactive effect. The ball will then again be in the DPAs' court. In the end, they will have to enforce the CJEU's ruling. Given their performance so far, the outlook is dire. noyb is prepared to exploit all legal possibilites to ensure a decision for pending complaints and - if necessary - to file new complaints to make sure that future CJEU rulings will be respected.

https://noyb.eu/en/23-years-illegal-data-transfers-due-inactive-dpas-and-new-eu-us-deals

predicts YES

Question to the traders:

I now have two separate bets, one for 2023 and one for 2024. That's confusing.

If I make a new, multiple choice bet, and cancel these two. Would you:

  • Like that?

  • Join the new bet?