What were the motives of the Magdeburg Christmas Market terror attacker? (Germany, 20 December 2024)
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Plus
14
Ṁ1565
2025
3%
Terrorism/Extremism - Islamic
31%
Terrorism/Extremism - Far right
2%
Personal Grievance
15%
Mental Health Crisis
46%
Political Statement
1.7%
Religious Conflict
1.7%
Other

Based on the ongoing investigation and Al-Abdulmohsen's background, which motive will German authorities officially declare as primary? Resolution via official announcement from German Federal Prosecutor's Office or similar level of authority.

What we know about the Magdeburg attack suspect – DW – 12/21/2024

If the official announcement does not fit the above categories, I will use my personal judgement, and advice from an AI.

I used the AI question generator for this one. It is quite good. And tweaked it manually.

I don't bet on my own questions.

  • Update 2024-21-12 (PST): Multiple options may be selected during resolution if the official announcement indicates more than one motive. (AI summary of creator comment)

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bought Ṁ100 YES

*Update 2024-21-12 (PST): Multiple options may be selected during resolution if the official announcement indicates more than one motive. (AI summary of creator comment)*

How are you going to do this since this is a linked market?

The suspect, a doctor from Saudi Arabia named Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, arrived in Germany in 2006 and in 2016 was recognised as a refugee.

An atheist, he ran a website that aimed to help other former Muslims flee persecution in their Gulf homelands. His social media was full of anti-Islamic sentiment and conspiracy theories.

The German Office for Migration and Refugees announced in a post on social media that it had fielded a complaint about the suspect, which it had "taken seriously", but as the office is not an investigative body, had referred the complainant to other authorities.

A source close to the Saudi government told the BBC it sent four official notifications known as "Notes Verbal" to German authorities, warning them about what they said were "the very extreme views" held by al-Abdulmohsen. However, a counter-terrorism expert told the BBC the Saudis may have been mounting a disinformation campaign to discredit someone who tried to help young Saudi women seek asylum in Germany.

Later, the head of the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), Holger Münch, told public broadcaster ZDF that his office had received a notice from Saudi Arabia in November 2023. He said local police took appropriate investigative measures, but the matter was unspecific. He added that the suspect "had various contacts with authorities, insulted them and even made threats, but he was not known for violent acts".

He was a prolific poster of anti-Islamic sentiment and conspiracy theories on X, and had made threats in the past.

Magdeburg Christmas market attack: Police probe security and warnings

@uair01 I love how the article scare-quotes notes verbal as if they weren't the absolutely most trivial way countries officially exchange information.

The motive for the attack is still unclear. According to investigators at a press conference on Saturday afternoon, the man was apparently dissatisfied with Germany's treatment of refugees from Saudi Arabia.

According to German media, he was critical of Islam on social media, feared the Islamization of Germany, and even wanted to cooperate with the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) on projects for people who had renounced Islam.

Caution! This is from Watchpeopledie.tv. But they often have news quicker than the media and with less censorship:

https://watchpeopledie.tv/h/social/post/259557/perpetrator-of-the-german-festival-attack

More news in German:

https://x.com/FlorianFlade/status/1870243318728122484?t=fTQInAgVdg0rvvrnuPyrlw&s=19

A complex and contradictory set of motivations.

And in English:

https://x.com/Tim_Roehn/status/1870263484044234850?t=vg-ho6376tHaqLwrtLFOfg&s=19

Sounds as frustration over refugee status.

bought Ṁ450 YES

Ugh, really unfortunate the answers here are set to be mutually exclusive. "Political statement" is really a superset of "far right terrorism", no?

@AlexanderTheGreater I agree that it's not optimal, I'm still learning. I find it really difficult to phrase these multi questions well.

This time I went along with the AI suggestions.

I suppose during resolution I may choose several options (I hope that's possible, I'm still learning that too).

If you don't make massive amounts of questions, then resolutions are rare and far between.

Suggestions always welcome.

@uair01 I think there is a choice when creating the market to choose between exclusive answers or multiple, independent answers. This doesn't only impact market resolution but also odds while the market is open.

@AlexanderTheGreater I see I can still choose "resolve many", so I think that will be the best option.

Far-right AfD supporter?

He has also voiced support for the far-right and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Der Spiegel magazine reported.

Recently, he repeatedly claimed on social media that German authorities had been targeting Saudi asylum-seekers and sought "to destroy our anti-Islam activism."

A Saudi source told Reuters news agency that Saudi Arabia had warned German authorities about the attacker after he posted extremist views on his personal X account that threatened peace and security.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz was due to travel to Magdeburg on Saturday to pay his respects to victims. A memorial service is to take place in the city cathedral in the evening.

Friday's attack was not the first on a Christmas market in Germany. In December 2016, Tunisian Anis Amri drove a truck through a Christmas market in Berlin, killing 13 people.

After the attack, German cities erected strong barriers at Christmas and other outdoor events to protect against similar incidents.

Anti-Islam Saudi activist detained

A 50-year-old Saudi national was taken into police custody near the scene shortly after the attack.

The suspect has been in Germany for 18 years, has permanent residency and practices medicine, officials said.

Several German media outlets identified the man and reported that he was a specialist in psychiatry and psychotherapy and was practicing in Bernburg, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Magdeburg.

Describing himself as a former Muslim, the alleged perpetrator shared dozens of tweets and retweets daily focusing on anti-Islam themes.

He often criticized the religion and congratulated Muslims who left the faith.

He also accused German authorities of failing to do enough to combat what he said was the "Islamism of Europe."

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