Quanta and Qualia [Kent 2018]
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62%
Will an interferometry experiment involving a living organism or virus show wavefunction collapse attributable to the entity itself by the end of 2068?
50%
Will experimental evidence demonstrate that consciousness causes deviations from standard quantum dynamics by the end of 2068?
46%
Will the 'Hard Problem' of consciousness be resolved by a physical theory of 'Strong Emergence' by the end of 2068?
38%
Will a 'Bell Test' using human choices demonstrate a violation of standard Quantum Mechanics by the end of 2068?
Markets inspired by Adrian Kent's 2018 paper, “Quanta and Qualia”, which contains the following:
But, to be provocatively quantitative, on the grounds that deep puzzles in physics have often led to big surprises and that consensus views tend to be overconfident, I would still give credence of perhaps 15% that something specifically to do with consciousness causes deviations from quantum theory, with perhaps 3% credence that this will be experimentally detectable within the next fifty years.
See my notes for more background information about the paper.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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