Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the outcome of a poll conducted among registered Republican voters. The poll will ask participants whether they prioritize tax cuts over deficit reduction. The market will resolve as follows:

• Yes: If a majority (over 50%) of respondents indicate that they prioritize tax cuts over deficit reduction.

• No: If a majority (over 50%) of respondents indicate that they prioritize deficit reduction over tax cuts.

The poll must be conducted by a reputable polling organization and published in a widely recognized media outlet. The resolution will be based on the most recent poll available as of the market's closing date.

Background

The Republican Party has historically emphasized both tax cuts and deficit reduction as key components of its economic policy. However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in priorities. For instance, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," passed by the House in May 2025, proposed extending the 2017 tax cuts and included additional tax reductions. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that this legislation would add approximately $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. This development suggests a current inclination within the party towards prioritizing tax cuts, even at the expense of increasing the deficit. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Internal Party Divisions: There are ongoing debates within the Republican Party regarding the balance between tax cuts and deficit reduction. Some members advocate for significant spending cuts to offset tax reductions, while others prioritize tax relief without corresponding spending cuts. (apnews.com)

• Public Perception: The perception of Republican voters regarding the importance of tax cuts versus deficit reduction may be influenced by recent legislative actions and the party's messaging. It's important to consider how these factors might affect poll responses.

• Economic Context: The broader economic environment, including factors such as national debt levels, economic growth rates, and public services funding, may also influence Republican voters' priorities between tax cuts and deficit reduction.