I am moving to DC in early October. After starting a new remote-friendly, DC-or-Bay-preferring job a few months ago, I spent a few weeks in DC and 2 months in the Bay. I somewhat preferred the Bay but think this could be explained by many factors (including the respective summer weathers and durations of stay) and chose DC for professional reasons. I'm now trying to estimate how likely it is that I stay in DC for >1 year, which is action-relevant for decisions like "how much to spend on furniture" and "what explore-exploit tradeoffs do I make" etc. I might move back to the Bay, or any number of other things could happen.

My lease ends September 30, 2024. I have to notify the landlord 60 days in advance, so this uncertainty and this prediction market will resolve on August 1, 2024 at the latest.