EAG DC 2022

Hey there! Welcome to our group for EAG DC!

Here you can learn a little more about what we do and how we can be useful to you. We also encourage attendees of EAG to add and browse markets in this group!

What is Manifold Markets?

We are a play money prediction market platform that allows users to create markets about any question they want forecasted about! Users can also donate to charity with what they earn from forecasting!

We are trying to normalise prediction markets by presenting them in a fun, easy-to-get started format. A lot of our current users are from the EA community and enjoy using our markets to ask a mix of fun and serious questions.

Fun EAG related questions!

Here are some markets we made to make fun predictions about what might happen at EAG. If you come up with any good ones please add the to the group and we may feature them here.

/DavidChee/will-qualy-announce-their-identity /JamesGrugett/will-there-be-an-ea-global-conferen

/DavidChee/which-talk-from-eag-dc-uploaded-to /SG/how-many-people-will-show-up-to-man

How can EAs benefit from using Manifold?

Besides the enjoyment of proving your forecasting abilities, there are many practical use cases of our markets that can provide valuable information to users. We are still figuring out the most effective applications ourselves, but below are some things users are currently using our markets for.

Research

If you are focused on research, you could use Manifold to help identify which studies would be the most impactful.

Project management

If you are involved in the development of a project, you may want to use Manifold to crowdsource ideas and feedback. We like to use it to allow our users to predict which potential features we could work on would be the most impactful.

Personal

A new way to receive suggestions on what you can do to maximise the efficiency of any aspect of your life. Unlike if you were to post the question on Reddit or Quora where people might not care, on Manifold people are incentivised to provide useful answers as they could earn "profit" from it.

Regranting programs

We are currently partnering with Clearer Thinking Regrants to run a forecasting tournament and help them decide which projects should receive funding.
/clearthinkbot/will-we-fund-better-debates /clearthinkbot/will-we-fund-pandemic-prevention-pl

General information

Manifold can act as a great source of information to learn from others, whether it is the sentiment reflected in the probability or high-level discussion in the comment section.
/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5 /Predictor/will-there-be-another-pandemic-befo-6001af28e5ae

Thanks for checking us out! Don't hesitate to reach out to any of the Manifold Markets team on Swapcard if you want to schedule a 1-1.

Also, check Austin Chen's talks to find more details about our forecasting workshop and office hours.