Tom Killestein's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Tom Killestein bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?YESṀ10
- Will we train GPT-4 to generate resolution criteria better than the creator 50% of the time by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will any top AI lab commit to a moratorium on giant AI experiments before 2024?NOṀ10
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%