Each option should refer to an approach (ideally through a title with a link to a comment). The option's probability is then the probability that if the approach is followed, then after a month the person won't smoke for a full year.
The current best approach (the one with the highest probability) will every day be rewarded 100 Mana at random time.
Only reasonable approaches will be considered that don't have other negative effects. For instance: "Replace it with cocaine." is an invalid approach, even though it might have a high probability of success.
This is an experiment on figuring out optimal approaches to problems.
You can read more about the idea here: https://medium.com/@patrik.cihal1234/approdict-finding-optimal-approaches-to-problems-e06491785134
1,000
3.00@JamesBaker3 oh didn't realize that wasn't allowed, I'll remove the links in description, thanks for letting me know first
What is the incentive to correct probabilities from market manipulation? Because there is no resolution, there is no financial incentive for the probabilities to be correct (i.e. every option is equivalent regardless of content, except who owns it). The honor system is an incentive, but I think it is outweighed by financial incentive to buy up one’s own option here (that’s the backbone of prediction markets). But Approdict seems like a creative approach to a problem worth solving!
@ismellpillows The incentive is that you gain tokens on prize movements. Even if the owner bets it up, he cannot out bet everyone else. In the future, it might be resolved once it tested by large enough sample size.
But even without resolution, the assumption is that it converges correctly, since some people bet their beliefs and others besides creator don't have much incentive to manipulate it.
I don't know, of course, whether this will actually work in practice tho.
You can read about this and more in a blog I've referenced in the description
Even if the owner bets it up, he cannot out bet everyone else.
This is the game we will play, not anything to do with nicotine.
@ismellpillows I think this is the game people might play if there is low amount of traders but at some point incorrectly betting your market up especially since you don't know when the Mana reward is given will result in larger losses than the reward.