Mad software developer's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.39
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Mad software developer bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
60%
- If Ukraine recaptures Cherson in 2022, Vladimir Putin remains in power at the end of 2023.YESṀ50
- Will at least 50% of male citizens aged 18 to 35 be allowed to leave Russia as of Mar 31st 2023?YESṀ20
- Will MM clients of an improperly resolved market retrieve 90% of their deposits by Nov 30, 2022?NOṀ10
70%
- Will Putin's popularity rating be higher on December 31, 2022 than his pre-war level (69%)?YESṀ70
- Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023?NOṀ50
- If Ukraine recaptures Cherson in 2022, Vladimir Putin remains in power at the end of 2023.YESṀ35
80%
90%
95%