Will Democrats win 2024 presidential election *if Biden is not the nominee*?
17
58
1k
Nov 6
48%
chance

If Biden is the nominee the question will be voided.
If Biden withdraws after receiving the nomination and the nomination is passed to someone else, the question continues because he was the original nominee.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 of NO

Some arbitration with other markets:

P(win|!Biden) = P(win) \* P(!Biden|win) / P(!Biden)
= P(win) \* (1 - P(Biden|win)) / (1 - P(Biden))
= P(win) \* (1 - P(win AND Biden) / P(win)) / (1 - P(Biden))

= P(win) \* P(win AND Biden) / (1 - P(Biden))

= https://manifold.markets/MuhammadImran/will-democrats-win-the-us-2024-elec \* (https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-preside OR https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres) / (1 - https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n)
= 0.68 * 0.50 / 0.70

= 0.48

If you think this is wrong, you might want to bet on the P(win) market, since that has only had a few betters so far


P(win AND Biden) = https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-preside = 0.50
P(win) = https://manifold.markets/MuhammadImran/will-democrats-win-the-us-2024-elec = 0.68 (low confidence)
P(Biden) = https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n = 0.70

predicts NO

(The reason for the \* in the above comment is that if you try to write two asterisks otherwise, they disappear and make the content between them italicized)