If Biden is the nominee the question will be voided.
If Biden withdraws after receiving the nomination and the nomination is passed to someone else, the question continues because he was the original nominee.
1,000
3.00Some arbitration with other markets:
P(win|!Biden) = P(win) \* P(!Biden|win) / P(!Biden)
= P(win) \* (1 - P(Biden|win)) / (1 - P(Biden))
= P(win) \* (1 - P(win AND Biden) / P(win)) / (1 - P(Biden))
= P(win) \* P(win AND Biden) / (1 - P(Biden))
= https://manifold.markets/MuhammadImran/will-democrats-win-the-us-2024-elec \* (https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-preside OR https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres) / (1 - https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n)
= 0.68 * 0.50 / 0.70
= 0.48
If you think this is wrong, you might want to bet on the P(win) market, since that has only had a few betters so far
P(win AND Biden) = https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-preside = 0.50
P(win) = https://manifold.markets/MuhammadImran/will-democrats-win-the-us-2024-elec = 0.68 (low confidence)
P(Biden) = https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n = 0.70