TBone's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.41
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when TBone bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?NOṀ100
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
60%
70%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ100
80%
90%
- will the ravens be in the super bowlNOṀ250
- Will anyone submit an Any% speedrun of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom with a time under 1 hour to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?YESṀ100
- Will anyone submit an Any% speedrun of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom with a time under 1 hour to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?YESṀ100
95%
97%
99%
- Will Destiny's video "Zherka Genuinely Opens Up To Destiny" reach 70k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny's video "Zherka Genuinely Opens Up To Destiny" reach 70k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny's video "Zherka Genuinely Opens Up To Destiny" reach 70k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?YESṀ100