tb's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.29
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when tb bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in the first half of 2023?NOṀ125
- Will the "major flare-up in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?" market have a prediction of 99% on March 1NOṀ100
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ87
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%