If Biden dies before the election, will Trump become president?
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1k
Oct 7
53%
chance

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bought Ṁ1 NO

Referencing https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-trump-be-barred-from-running-f

8% unconditional Trump won’t be barred from office. I am going to assume that the bettors in aren’t conditioning on whether he will be alive come swearing in ceremony.

This market is at 77% leaving 23%. With that assumption, excluding the scenario where Trump is barred reduces that 23 by 8, leaving 15% that Trump will become president AND he will not be barred. Trying to interpret this 15% is tricky as there are too many scenarios to split it up into. The simplest explanation is that any other candidate running against Trump will have at most 85% chance of winning (excluding unexpected third party candidate surges, or such marginal probability/ catastrophic scenarios like there is no president sworn in). This seems remarkably high and suggests a correlation with a scenario that goes well beyond the electability of whomever replaces Biden (Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, and other favorites would seem hard pressed to account for that advantage).

I can only speculate on the alternative scenarios YES bettors have in mind, maybe they can explain why?

Resolves N/A if Biden doesn't die?