syliyth's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.26
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when syliyth bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ100
- Will Destiny beat Factorio Space Exploration before February 1st 2023?NOṀ50
- If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%?NOṀ50
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%