Will continuous positive bet placement affect the outcome of an individual’s performance on personal goal questions?
6
75
130
resolved Feb 29
Resolved
NO

I have placed a bet on this question:

https://manifold.markets/jBosc/will-i-go-to-the-gym-14-or-more-tim?r=c3V6dW1lYmF0Y2hp

Essentially, the author (and subject) asks whether he will go to the gym 14 times over a set number of days. Initially, I bet “YES,” because he clearly wants to go to the gym and work out, he seems dedicated, and I like seeing people succeed. I then began to wonder if encouragement would increase the likelihood of his consistency, so I left a positive comment. But then I started thinking that maybe a more effective way to encourage him would be to consistently place positive bets (e.g. 5M a day) to see if the increased market value of his success was a motivating factor. I’ve now started placing daily positive bets as a means of encouragement, but 🤷🏻‍♀️.

Of course, I can’t determine the effect without directly asking him, so I’m asking you instead. What say you? Would an internet stranger placing daily bets that you will succeed affect your determination to achieve your goal?

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Friends and fellow optimists, I am sad to report that this iteration of my experimental foray into encouragement betting has failed. Additionally, my subsequent investments in other personal goal markets were similarly unsuccessful. I am resolving this market to no.

@suzumebatchi I wish you luck in your future endeavours, I was rooting for you but confess that I was not optimistic

bought Ṁ15 YES

I personally imagine it would be quite helpful; knowing other people are keeping track of/paying attention/rooting to/for my success (and/or failure) would very much encourage my goals.

bought Ṁ7 of NO

I considered the impact of betting on outcome too. However (based on personal experience, sample size:1) I placed a bet on someone going to the gym today and I lost.