Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of exactly 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) to the target range for the federal funds rate at its next meeting concluding after August 4, 2026.

• As of August 2026, the target range is 3.50%–3.75%. A 25 basis point cut would lower this range to 3.25%–3.50%.

• This market will resolve to NO if the FOMC maintains the current rate, increases the rate, or reduces the rate by any other increment (such as 50 basis points).

• The "next meeting" refers to the next FOMC meeting to announce a rate decision, which is scheduled for September 15–16, 2026. If an unscheduled or emergency rate decision is announced by the FOMC prior to September 16, 2026, that announcement will serve as the resolution event.

• Resolution will be determined using the official statements published on the Federal Reserve Board's Meeting Calendars and Information page.

Background

• At its meeting on July 28–29, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, a level held since December 2025.

• The July decision was a divided 9–3 vote, representing the highest level of FOMC dissent in a decade. Three regional Fed presidents (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan) dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike.

• With inflation still running above the Fed's 2% target and resilient domestic demand, public debate remains split on whether the central bank's next move under Chair Kevin Warsh will be a rate hike or a hold, making a near-term rate cut highly unexpected.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of exactly 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) to the target range for the federal funds rate at its next meeting concluding after August 4, 2026.

As of August 2026, the target range is 3.50%–3.75%. A 25 basis point cut would lower this range to 3.25%–3.50%.

This market will resolve to NO if the FOMC:

• Maintains the current rate range.

• Increases the target rate range.

• Redefines or adjusts the rate range by any other increment (such as a 50 basis point cut).

The "next meeting" refers to the next scheduled FOMC meeting to announce a rate decision, which is scheduled for September 15–16, 2026. If an unscheduled or emergency rate decision is officially announced by the FOMC prior to the conclusion of the September 16, 2026 meeting, that announcement will serve as the resolution event.

Resolution will be determined using the official statements and implementation notes published on the Federal Reserve Board's Meeting Calendars and Information page.

Background

At its meeting on July 28–29, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75%, a level held since December 2025.

The July decision was a divided 9–3 vote, representing a high level of FOMC dissent. Three regional Fed presidents—Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan—dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike.

With inflation still running above the Fed's 2% target and resilient domestic demand, public debate remains split on whether the central bank's next move under Chair Kevin Warsh will be a rate hike or a hold. A near-term rate cut is generally not anticipated by market participants.

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