Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of August?
Basic
36
แน20kAug 8
94%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of August. This market resolves one week into August to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of August 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on August 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
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