Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024?
Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 in the US by the end of 2024?
39
50𝕊395
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

resolves YES if 100 or more people are infected by the end of 2024 in the US, as reported by this website

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/students.for.health.security.2024/viz/USH5N1OutbreakTracker/Dashboard1

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@strutheo Dashboard reports 73 cases. Resolves NO

3mo

@JonathanNankivell (Is there a lag to the dashboard / results like COVID used to be? I’m seeing last updated Dec. 30—though I don’t exactly suspect they’ll turn up 27 cases all of a sudden unless there’s some retroactive testing/ reporting.)

Hi @strutheo , it would be great if you could run another version of this that is for the end of 2025!

3mo

@SpencerGreenberg consider it done

@strutheo Thank you! :)

@strutheo Yeah, it would be great to also have one for 1000 and 10000 people or something along those lines!

3mo

Anywhere I can get monthly data for human cases? Seems like the link only provides information about livestock herds... unless I'm reading it wrong

@SaiVazquez The link in the description provides the total number of human cases. I've not found a monthly breakdown anywhere though - use the web archive, maybe?

bought Ṁ90 YES3mo

@JonathanNankivell Not a perfect arb, beware

3mo

@JonathanNankivell I'm pretty sure that one should be lower - the CDC uses slightly stricter criteria. Their current count is 60, while the dashboard for this market is at 65.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Agreed. Afaict only three combinations are possible as the CDC number should be lower than that on Tableau

bought Ṁ100 NO3mo

The dashboard shows 64 human cases, but the official CDC count is 58.

They mention six other cases that met a lower standard, which probably explains the discrepancy: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html

bought 𝕊4.74 NO4mo

@Manifold @strutheo The question is cases in the US, as reflected by the dashboard, correct?

4mo

@snazzlePop yeah that was my interpretation based on the source, will clarify in the title and desc.

4mo

sweepified!

reposted 4mo

61 human cases

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