Will Palworld have more players than the Nintendo 64 sold units (32.93M) by the end of Mario Day (March 10th)?
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resolved Apr 19
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NO

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there is no indication they have gotten close after a month, and no updates on numbers. i can reopen this if things change.

if there isnt any news on units or an easy way to determine the value i will either keep it closed or NA

@strutheo Judging by their previous announcements, they'll probably put out a new sales figure announcement later in the month, just as they put out their February 22 numbers because the game had been out a month. It seems worth waiting until the next numbers come out.

January 31 was 19M, February 22 was 25M, if numbers from later in March say 32M or less then this can resolve NO easily, and if they say higher than 32M then it'll depend on whether there are any third-party finer-grained sources for either the Steam or Xbox sales data.

happy mario day to all who celebrate

sold Ṁ520 NO

I still have a sizeable bet on NO, but as a percentage of my portfolio I was overexposed on this one, so I'm toning it down - thanks for the limit order @Stralor

reposted

theyre at 25M currently but it is slowing down

the 19M number included xbox live passes and other stuff, so i might count that as 'sold' toward these resolutions

Palworld apparently stopped posting their sales stats, but here's some graphs. On the 16th of feb they posted an update with the phrase "Currently, some users are unable to connect to official servers due to cheating and the influence of fraudulent activities". It's interesting that they said cheating and fraudulent activity, as two separate things. https://twitter.com/Palworld_EN/status/1758485035517374815

@Retr0id we'll see if they post, if not i can wait to verify until i resolve.

@strutheo > Correction: This piece originally said Palworld had sold 19 million copies, which didn't take into account the fact that it's available on Game Pass on Xbox. This has now been amended.

So, two questions I guess.

1. Does a game-pass (monthly subscription) player count as a "sold unit" (Personally, I say no)?

2. What will we do if for example, a report on 1st March says 20M, and a report on 20th March says 40M? (i.e. if we don't have stats for March 10th specifically) - and which source(s) of stats will be used?

@Retr0id i'm going by palworlds own stated numbers they put on twitter for the most part. do they count game pass? i am inclined not to count those but i havent thought too much about it.

@strutheo Their twitter announcement said

> Steam: 12 million~ copies
> Xbox: 7 million~ players

(emphasis mine). The steam stats are unambiguous, but from their choice of words I'm pretty sure this implies the 7m figure includes both copies sold and subscription players.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what numbers get released in the future, I trust your judgement.

Depends heavily on whether they end up in a legal battle before then. If there are injunctions and those injunctions stick, or if major markets like Steam or game consoles pause or stop sales, then almost certainly not. If there are no injunctions, or only brief injunctions that result in the Streisand effect, then maybe.

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