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@strutheo Judging by their previous announcements, they'll probably put out a new sales figure announcement later in the month, just as they put out their February 22 numbers because the game had been out a month. It seems worth waiting until the next numbers come out.
January 31 was 19M, February 22 was 25M, if numbers from later in March say 32M or less then this can resolve NO easily, and if they say higher than 32M then it'll depend on whether there are any third-party finer-grained sources for either the Steam or Xbox sales data.
I still have a sizeable bet on NO, but as a percentage of my portfolio I was overexposed on this one, so I'm toning it down - thanks for the limit order @Stralor
Palworld apparently stopped posting their sales stats, but here's some graphs. On the 16th of feb they posted an update with the phrase "Currently, some users are unable to connect to official servers due to cheating and the influence of fraudulent activities". It's interesting that they said cheating and fraudulent activity, as two separate things. https://twitter.com/Palworld_EN/status/1758485035517374815
@strutheo > Correction: This piece originally said Palworld had sold 19 million copies, which didn't take into account the fact that it's available on Game Pass on Xbox. This has now been amended.
So, two questions I guess.
1. Does a game-pass (monthly subscription) player count as a "sold unit" (Personally, I say no)?
2. What will we do if for example, a report on 1st March says 20M, and a report on 20th March says 40M? (i.e. if we don't have stats for March 10th specifically) - and which source(s) of stats will be used?
@Retr0id i'm going by palworlds own stated numbers they put on twitter for the most part. do they count game pass? i am inclined not to count those but i havent thought too much about it.
@strutheo Their twitter announcement said
> Steam: 12 million~ copies
> Xbox: 7 million~ players
(emphasis mine). The steam stats are unambiguous, but from their choice of words I'm pretty sure this implies the 7m figure includes both copies sold and subscription players.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see what numbers get released in the future, I trust your judgement.
Depends heavily on whether they end up in a legal battle before then. If there are injunctions and those injunctions stick, or if major markets like Steam or game consoles pause or stop sales, then almost certainly not. If there are no injunctions, or only brief injunctions that result in the Streisand effect, then maybe.