Will I live to see Trump leave power?
18
100Ṁ806
2029
96%
chance

Politics
US Politics
Trump
Trump's Second Term
Republican Party
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Ṁ1,000
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2mo

Leave power voluntarily?

bought Ṁ10 YES

The United States ain't Russia, yet! There were a lot of Russians who were born under Putin and who also died under Putin...

2mo

How's your health? Care to share your age?

2mo

@DavidOman 30-35

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 99.0% order2mo

Is there a particular reason that makes you anticipate this not happening?

2mo

maybe he orders a hit on me

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

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