sshh12's calibration
Grade: C, Score: -5.82
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when sshh12 bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
- Will language models or similar natural language processing technologies, such as ChatGPT, be integrated into dialogue trees for NPCs in triple-A games by the end of 2023?NOṀ15
- Will anyone run for political office with the promise of outsourcing all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?YESṀ10
- Will Google Search include a chatbot at end of June 2023?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%
- By September 2023, will a publicly traded company announce they lost money because of Silicon Valley Bank?NOṀ50
- Will there be a social media with >10k users that is based around users interacting mainly with AI profiles with AI generated content by the end of 2023?NOṀ10
- 1. Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2023?YESṀ10