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MANIFOLD
[10k mana] Will I wake up before time X on day T
3
Ṁ10kṀ4k
Nov 11
67%
10/19: 5:30
66%
10/18: 6:00
66%
10/13: 8:30
65%
10/16: 7:00
63%
10/17: 6:30
62%
10/14: 8:00
62%
10/15: 7:30

Currently I have an agent (local hardware) that is compiling all data in my life into a single source of truth, including my exact sleep schedule. I can then have it autonomously publish the wake up time to here through the manifold api to allow for a verifiable incentive structure with a continuous objective function (you can see how close I get to achieving my goal each day, so this is better for traders to forecast).

My goal is to eventually wake up at 5am because I think it's really peaceful at that time (not for any productivity reason).

I will add more answers to this as it goes along. May add liquidity if this incentive structure actually effects behavioral change.

I may change my plan later on for whatever reason; if so, I will not change existing answers on this post to protect the confidence of the trading, but rather add new options.

For each option, I will only ever buy YES shares and will never sell YES shares.

If there are any technical issues, I will N/A the option for that day.

For convenience, it is best to sort the options in the market by A-Z to get a chronological order.

I will do my best to be fair to the traders and accommodate the spirit of the market as traders interpreted it at the time of trading

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