snap's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.16
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when snap bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
- The following bug is fixed within a week: "Attemping to enter a market close date by typing it in could be used as an excersice in anger management classes "NOṀ21
- With regard to Trump's subpoena by the Jan 6th Committee, will he show up to testify either at the Capitol or by videoconference at 10 a.m. ET on Nov. 14 as requested?NOṀ14
- Will I get 1500+ on my practice SAT?NOṀ14
30%
40%
- Will the digits of the randomly generated five digit number generated on Thursday November 17, 2022 at noon Central Time total at least 25?YESṀ15
- The following bug is fixed within a week: "When I type % to do a %-mention, my browser freezes for a while "NOṀ15
- Will I do at least 1 pomodoro of housework each day I am home thru 11/13?NOṀ13
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%