Resolves to ‘Yes’ if José Sócrates is convicted in connection with the Operação Marquês case and serves any prison time from 2025 onward as part of that conviction.

Pre-2025 imprisonment does not count, even if credited toward a later sentence. If he is sentenced but does not serve any additional time because his pre-2025 preventive detention exceeds or fully covers the sentence, the market resolves to ‘No’.

Resolves to ‘No’ if he is acquitted or never serves prison time and no further appeals are possible.

If unresolved, the market remains open until he either serves prison time (‘Yes’) or dies without serving any (‘No’).