RFK Jr. 'Address the Nation' Prop Bets [Short Fuse - Aug 23]
93
3.9kṀ42k
resolved Sep 11
Resolved
N/A
RFK jr announces he's not dropping out
Resolved
NO
RFK Jr says he has been threatened in some manner
Resolved
NO
RFK mentions a specific role he's discussed taking in Trump's cabinet if he's reelected
Resolved
YES
"Culture War"
Resolved
YES
"Hopeful"
Resolved
NO
"Climate Change"
Resolved
NO
RFK publicly offers some sort of "deal" for Trump to consider. (requires RFK to use the word 'deal," or similar, related to an arrangement between him and Trump related to the election)
Resolved
NO
"Nicole Shanahan"
Resolved
NO
"Kamala Harris"
Resolved
NO
"Vaccine"
Resolved
NO
"Endorse" -or- "Endorsement"
Resolved
NO
"We the People"
Resolved
NO
"We the Corporations"
Resolved
NO
"Humanitarian Crisis"
Resolved
NO
"Crypto" -or- "Cryptocurrency" -or- "Bitcoin"
Resolved
NO
"communism"
Resolved
NO
Trump in attendance
Resolved
NO
"God bless"
Resolved
NO
RFK Jr.'s wife Cheryl joins him on stage
Resolved
NO
"My Marriage"

this market is for prop bets on the Kennedy 'Address the Nation' event on August 23, 2p ET held in Phoenix, AZ.

general rules:

Add your own answers, but please be as clear and objective as possible. I'll likely n/a vibes-based responses or ask for clarity to make them more concrete where possible. I will also n/a responses that are too difficult to track or resolve, or ones that are too obvious (if they'll definitely resolve Yes or No). Feel free to comment below if you want me to add the option for you.

For swift resolution, add proof or timestamps in your comment. Reply as a comment on the option you want resolved to make resolution clearer.)

If for any reason the press conference in Asheboro, NC is canceled, this market will NA. If the time changes, the market remains.

For words/mentions, the following apply:

The exact word or sequence of words must be said without any differences, except for the following rules:

  • Plurals (e.g., "cat" and "cats") are considered equivalent.

  • Possessives, e.g. "Trump's" counts as an instance of "Trump" (but not vice versa)

  • Contractions count the same as the words they represent e.g., "don't" is equivalent to "do not"

Some examples of words which are not considered the same (not an exhaustive list!)

  • Abbreviations, e.g. USA is not the same as "United States of America"

  • Verb tenses, e.g. running vs ran are not the same

  • Other word forms like America and American are not the same

  • Parts of words, e.g. "Obamacare" does not count as an instance of "Obama"

Additional notes for clarity:

  • Any usage counts regardless of context.

  • Different meanings of a word, e.g. Apple the company or apple the fruit count as the same word

  • Different capitalizations e.g., "Apple" and "apple" are counted as the same word.

  • Different spellings of a word due to regional variations are counted as the same word (e.g., "color" and "colour," "organize" and "organise")

    • It's a verbal conversation so this shouldn't matter but just for clarity. E.g. in case someone spells the word out, the spelling wouldn't matter.

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