work in progress - I will add more options. add your own, but please see below for guidelines.

per Lex's tweet:

this market is for prop bets on this conversation - not including the content of Lex's introduction.

general rules:

Add your own answers, but please be as clear and objective as possible. I'll likely n/a vibes-based responses or ask for clarity to make them more concrete where possible. I will also n/a responses that are too difficult to track or resolve, or ones that are too obvious (if they'll definitely resolve Yes or No). Feel free to comment below if you want me to add the option for you.

For swift resolution, add proof or timestamps in your comment. Reply as a comment on the option you want resolved to make resolution clearer.)

Close date currently set for the end of September - I will extend as necessary if it's delayed.

For words/mentions, the following apply:

The exact word or sequence of words must be said without any differences, except for the following rules:

• Plurals (e.g., "cat" and "cats") are considered equivalent.

• Possessives, e.g. "Trump's" counts as an instance of "Trump" (but not vice versa)

• Contractions count the same as the words they represent e.g., "don't" is equivalent to "do not"

Some examples of words which are not considered the same (not an exhaustive list!)

• Abbreviations, e.g. USA is not the same as "United States of America"

• Verb tenses, e.g. running vs ran are not the same

• Other word forms like America and American are not the same

• Parts of words, e.g. "Obamacare" does not count as an instance of "Obama"

Additional notes for clarity:

• Any usage counts regardless of context.

• Different meanings of a word, e.g. Apple the company or apple the fruit count as the same word

• Different capitalizations e.g., "Apple" and "apple" are counted as the same word.

• Different spellings of a word due to regional variations are counted as the same word (e.g., "color" and "colour," "organize" and "organise")

  • It's a verbal conversation so this shouldn't matter but just for clarity. E.g. in case someone spells the word out, the spelling wouldn't matter.