work in progress - I will add more options. add your own, but please see below for guidelines.
per Lex's tweet:
this market is for prop bets on this conversation - not including the content of Lex's introduction.
general rules:
Add your own answers, but please be as clear and objective as possible. I'll likely n/a vibes-based responses or ask for clarity to make them more concrete where possible. I will also n/a responses that are too difficult to track or resolve, or ones that are too obvious (if they'll definitely resolve Yes or No). Feel free to comment below if you want me to add the option for you.
For swift resolution, add proof or timestamps in your comment. Reply as a comment on the option you want resolved to make resolution clearer.)
Close date currently set for the end of September - I will extend as necessary if it's delayed.
For words/mentions, the following apply:
The exact word or sequence of words must be said without any differences, except for the following rules:
Plurals (e.g., "cat" and "cats") are considered equivalent.
Possessives, e.g. "Trump's" counts as an instance of "Trump" (but not vice versa)
Contractions count the same as the words they represent e.g., "don't" is equivalent to "do not"
Some examples of words which are not considered the same (not an exhaustive list!)
Abbreviations, e.g. USA is not the same as "United States of America"
Verb tenses, e.g. running vs ran are not the same
Other word forms like America and American are not the same
Parts of words, e.g. "Obamacare" does not count as an instance of "Obama"
Additional notes for clarity:
Any usage counts regardless of context.
Different meanings of a word, e.g. Apple the company or apple the fruit count as the same word
Different capitalizations e.g., "Apple" and "apple" are counted as the same word.
Different spellings of a word due to regional variations are counted as the same word (e.g., "color" and "colour," "organize" and "organise")
It's a verbal conversation so this shouldn't matter but just for clarity. E.g. in case someone spells the word out, the spelling wouldn't matter.
1,000
3.00@GregMister What do you mean? I'm talking about Donald Trump, who attempted a coup to stay in power after losing the 2020 election.
@Snarflak bout to blow your mind son: maybe the reason hes still walking around is that he didnt actually attempt a coup at all
@GregMister That's obviously not the reason, because he did, in fact, attempt a coup.
He lost the election, getting a minority of electoral votes, so he tried to get his VP to invalidate the electors from states that he lost and replace them with "electors" that the states had not appointed.
@GregMister "He lost the election, getting a minority of electoral votes, so he tried to get his VP to invalidate the electors from states that he lost and replace them with "electors" that the states had not appointed."
What part of that do you contend is untrue?
@Shai he's such a broken record I feel like I should have been able to anticipate this transcript better lol - he can't resist saying the same things every time he's given a microphone. (though TDS was a new edition.. he's trying out new material! 😂 )
I've reopened the market for trading and adjusted the close date to one week from the post of the video (which can be found here). currently looks like ~100k views in ~1hr. I'll check periodically, but please @ me if you see this video hit 5mil views within the next week.
@HypercultureDaze it was about releasing UFO footage in the context of revealing information (like JFK, Epstein's list, etc.) and since "aliens" isn't in quotes, this contextually seems to fit the idea of the existence of aliens being discussed:
@shankypanky Super disagree that discussion of declassifying UFO stuff implies that they’re bringing up alien UFOs, plenty of other conspiracies surrounding UFOs. RIP my mana 🪦
@HypercultureDaze well, I'm open to hearing your arguments? but afaict from a cursory search, UFO conspiracy theories (which is kind of the basis of the JFK release as well) are the reason for the push to release footage:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFO_conspiracy_theories
@shankypanky My point on that would be that aliens aren’t necessarily being discussed there, so even if there’s conceptually a link there in many people’s minds, it doesn’t make sense to resolve this item this way, and, say, “Lex brings up Jan 6th” as no, when Jan 6th and surrounding events would presumably be a big part of the reason why Lex asked about fraud in the 2020 election. That also seems to fit contextually based on your comment.
I’d also point out that the rules stating “any usage,” “different meanings of the word” etc still don’t seem to dictate that UFO = aliens in this market. No usage of or reference to aliens, and the words point to different concepts.
@shankypanky It's unlisted, according to his post on X it should be published in 38 minutes