Prominent defined as 500k+ followers on a social media platform

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, at least one KOL with 500,000+ followers on any social media platform is publicly fined by Chinese authorities for violating the influencer qualification regulations. Resolution requires public disclosure of the fine by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), relevant platforms (Douyin, Weibo, Bilibili), or official government sources. The fine must be explicitly tied to violations of the regulations requiring creators on platforms like Douyin, Weibo, and Bilibili to prove their expertise in fields such as medicine, law, education, and finance before posting related content.

Background

China's new law, effective October 25, 2025, requires influencers to hold verified professional credentials for discussing topics like medicine, law, and finance to combat misinformation. Creators caught talking about regulated subjects face a fine of up to 100,000 yuan, which is about $14,000 USD. Major platforms such as Douyin (China's TikTok), Bilibili, and Weibo are now responsible for verifying influencer credentials and ensuring that content includes clear citations, disclaimers, and transparency about sources.

Considerations

Chinese censors have recently taken action against several high-profile influencers, with authorities punishing bloggers who advocated for less work pressure, an influencer who argued against marriage and children on financial grounds, and a commentator who observed China's quality of life lags behind Western countries. However, enforcement of the new credential requirements specifically may differ from enforcement of other content violations. The regulations are recent (October 2025), so public fines for credential violations may take time to materialize.