Will William MacAskill be on the board of EVF at the start of 2024?
31
376
590
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

Will currently serves on the board of Effective Ventures Foundation (EVF), a successor organization to the Center for Effective Altruism. Many people have thought he should leave the board.

This market will resolve YES if Will is on the board of EVF or any successor organization on January 1, 2024.

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bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

@samb this can be resolved.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@palcu Thanks -- the timing is unclear enough in that statement that 5 percent seemed too low to me.

predicted YES

@Jason I only keep my Yes shares because of the cost sunk fallacy. We are not the same.

boughtṀ100YES

@NathanpmYoung you can't just flip the market without spilling some beans

predicted YES

@palcu Most things carry on as they have been. Do we have any information to suggest that this will happen? Market felt too cheap and it resolves soon so I bought it.

@NathanpmYoung

Do we have any information to suggest that this will happen?

There are lots of changes to the board taking place: Apply or nominate someone to join the boards of Effective Ventures Foundation (UK and US)

bought Ṁ47 of NO

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/b83Zkz4amoaQC5Hpd/time-article-discussion-effective-altruist-leaders-were

This doesn't exactly sound great: 'Bouscal recalled speaking to Mac Aulay immediately after one of Mac Aulay’s conversations with MacAskill in late 2018. “Will basically took Sam’s side,” said Bouscal, who recalls waiting with Mac Aulay in the Stockholm airport while she was on the phone. (Bouscal and Mac Aulay had once dated; though no longer romantically involved, they remain close friends.) “Will basically threatened Tara,” Bouscal recalls. “I remember my impression being that Will was taking a pretty hostile stance here and that he was just believing Sam’s side of the story, which made no sense to me.”'

predicted NO

@DavidMathers Of course, a lot turns on exactly what the distinction is between 'threatened' and 'basically threatened'.

bought Ṁ45 of NO

Max Dalton has resigned as CEA's executive director. It seems even more likely now that there'll be lots of changes this year.