Will this question set the record for the largest ever total $$$ pool on Manifold Markets on or before March 15?
77
100Ṁ100k
resolved Feb 16
Resolved
YES
Can we do it? This question will resolve YES if this question's total money pool exceeds all current and previous questions on the platform. As far as I can tell, the current Russia-Ukraine question holds the record with approximately $19,000 of pooled money.
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Wow what a coup.
We now have the MOST. More than the Ukraine question. Anyone want to play my paper-guessing question?
yes.
@Robert McIntyre - I will resolve it as a YES as soon as it becomes the highest grossing question of all time (or it will resolve NO on March 15). I check this fairly often because it's hilarious. Got anymore of that sweet, sweet cash?
Question: If this market is the highest TODAY, then does it immediately resolve? Or do we have to wait till March 15?
I feel blessed that @RobertMcIntyre let me walk away from this one with my shirt.
This question is at the mercy of wonderful, erratic whales.
Let's take this one to the moon, guys.
Yes, I think it last refreshed after you (or someone) bought 11k worth of YES, but before they sold it again.
From my perspective I am now #1 on the leader boards for some reason, can anyone confirm this is the case?
Note: figuring out how some of this works, looks like there might be an error of some kind in how these calculations are done!
How does 1 trader have $11k when the trading leaderboard is at $2k and the market creator leaderboard is at $130k (times 4%)
11622/37513 = 31%
Strictly speaking, the best tactical voting would be to buy both YES and NO early, more NO later (as the YES total increases) and then cash out the YES position just prior to resolution in favor of a numerically higher pool (like Russia/Ukraine).
We need YES vote money alone to be enough to win. I expect NO to pull out at the last minute and pile on to Russia to secure a win. So we do need some healthy buffer. Some NOs may be tactical.
I generally agree that NOs probably shouldn't trade on this question (since it only adds to the pool) but the strong performance of the Russian questions makes the resolution of this question potentially lucrative to bet against. Only at a certain high threshold will the demand for NO truly dry up.
NO people please buy stocks in trades other than this one that resolve after March 15
YES People: Time to pump it! 67% -> 90% in 12 hours LETS GO!!!!!! 🚀🚀🚀
It's been a day since I posted this question and there's been spectacular growth! As Martin mentioned, we're already 25% of the way to our current goal! But can this growth be sustained? An analysis: - Has everyone who wanted to enter the trade already done so? I worry about the demand for NO. Pool increase should be directly correlated with decreased demand for NO, right? Will people still want to buy into a trade that's only YES? - The Russia/Ukraine questions are consuming a lot of capital, which we need. Every day the conflict drags on, their pool totals grow at our expense. These questions are genuine toss-ups, which encourages more betting. The best thing for this question would be for Russia to invade Ukraine ASAP so those questions close, but as a society we certainly don't want that! So what's the best path forward? - I don't know Martin, but he's the salesperson this question needs but doesn't deserve! The faster the pool can be expanded the better. TY Martin! - A silver lining: this question needed some sort of tension, and Russia gave it one. This is basically Us vs Russia. Do we as a community really want Russia to hold the title of highest grossing question? IDK maybe the MM user base is mostly Russian but probably not. A bet on this question is basically a vote against Russian military aggression.
Our progress as a progress bar: ⬛⬛⬛⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜⬜ 25% Given the time left, we should nail it. Probability should be 99% - if it is less you should buy YES. I would but I am out of money 🥺 Let's ace this people!!!!
6471 / 25100 = 25.7%
When I go to the home page this market is at the top due to 24h volume. It's an easy question to bet on so it may attract a good amount of gamblers
^Then this question will have to increase more!
What if the pool on another question increases?
56% is a good time to buy the YES dip
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