satan's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.54
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when satan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
- Will the Super Mario Bros. movie have >70% on Rotten Tomatoes score two weeks after release?NOṀ100
- Will any of the GitHub's services have an incident that lasts at least 6 hours before 1st May, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will any of the GitHub's services have an incident that lasts at least 6 hours before 1st May, 2023?YESṀ100
70%