@jellywastaken prop bets

Ṁ500Ṁ1.8k

resolved Feb 9

Resolved

YES

Will the realdonaldtrump manifolder join Hack Club by end of next week?

Resolved

YES

Will my preferred name still be "jelly" at end of next week?

Resolved

Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?

Resolved

Will I make 5 productive hours today?

Resolved

Will I demote to platinum?

Resolved

Will I write a blog post by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I write 2 blog posts by end of next week?

Resolved

Will this market get more than 10 traders by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian today?

Resolved

Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian tomorrow?

Resolved

Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour today?

Resolved

Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour tomorrow?

Resolved

Will johnswentworth post a new LW post by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I figure out a good permanent handle for myself by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I decide which is clearly better (the empirical side of AI safety or the theoretical side of AI safety) by end of next week?

Resolved

Will Bayesian's weekly profit be >=15000 mana at end of next week?

Resolved

Will I gain >= 10 karma on lw by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I post/comment on LW by end of next week?

Resolved

Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?

Resolved

Will I make 3 productive hours tomorrow?

Resolves based on my best judgment at the time of resolution (which doesn't need to be after market close). All options resolve in accordance with UTC+7. I may bet on this market. I may or may not post proofs.

("today" is 2026/02/01)

Clarifications:

"Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?": Resolves YES iff I make a prompt for a chatbot (or someone else makes it for me) that reliably generates novel Framing Practica examples
"Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?": Resolves YES iff I can access Nest via ssh so that I am able to run small projects on it

Market context

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