@root prop bets
2
αΉ500αΉ175Feb 9
76%
Will I write a blog post by end of next week?
66%
Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?
66%
Will my preferred name still be "jelly" at end of next week?
61%
Will I make 5 productive hours today?
50%
Will I write 2 blog posts by end of next week?
50%
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian today?
50%
Will the realdonaldtrump manifolder join Hack Club by end of next week?
50%
Will I figure out a good permanent handle for myself by end of next week?
50%
Will Bayesian's weekly profit be >=15000 mana at end of next week?
44%
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour tomorrow?
43%
Will this market get more than 10 traders by end of next week?
41%
Will johnswentworth post a new LW post by end of next week?
41%
Will I decide which is clearly better (the empirical side of AI safety or the theoretical side of AI safety) by end of next week?
41%
Will I post/comment on LW by end of next week?
38%
Will I make 3 productive hours tomorrow?
34%
Will I watch YouTube on my pc for >=1 hour today?
34%
Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?
24%
Will I gain >= 10 mana on lw by end of next week?
23%
Will I demote to platinum?
21%
Will I spend >=3 hours writing in Obsidian tomorrow?
Resolves based on my best judgment at the time of resolution (which doesn't need to be after market close). All options resolve in accordance with UTC+7. I may bet on this market. I may or may not post proofs.
("today" is 2026/02/01)
Clarifications:
"Will the idea "making a chatbot to generate Framing Practica examples" be done and succeed today?": Resolves YES iff I make a prompt for a chatbot (or someone else makes it for me) that reliably generates novel Framing Practica examples
"Will Hack Club Nest (http://hackclub.app/) be back up by end of next week?": Resolves YES iff I can access Nest via ssh so that I am able to run small projects on it
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
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