This market resolves to YES if Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) stock closes at or above $150 per share on any trading day before or on December 31, 2025. It resolves to NO if the stock price fails to reach $150 by the end of 2025.
Nebius Group is an AI infrastructure company that recently secured a major $17.4-19.4 billion contract with Microsoft. The stock has seen significant growth in 2025, with its price rising from around $14 to over $90 following the Microsoft deal announcement.
Resolution criteria: The market will resolve based on the official closing price as reported on Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NBIS/) or NASDAQ's official website (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nbis).
1,000Path to $150 by 12/31/2025: three catalysts vs. three risks
Where we are: NBIS is ~$96 today; $150 implies +56% in ~3.5 months and a ≈$35.8B market cap (238.7M shares). Next earnings: Oct 30, 2025.
Bull case / near‑term catalysts
Microsoft deal: 5‑year AI infra contract worth $17.4B (up to $19.4B); deliveries begin later this year from the new Vineland, NJ data center. This is real revenue visibility, not vibes.
Capacity + runway: Q2 revenue $105.1M (+625% YoY); ARR guide raised to $900M–$1.1B for YE2025. Management says they’re securing >1 GW of power by end‑2026.
Balance sheet + “magnet” level: Just raised $4B+ (≈$1B equity at $92.50 + $2.75B converts). Initial convert price $138.75—often a technical magnet if execution stays hot.
Street setup: Goldman Buy $120 PT; BWS Financial $130 PT. Aggregators show 12‑mo consensus ~$102–$106 with a high of $130.
Bear case / what could derail $150
Power & GPUs: Lead times for power interconnects + Blackwell GPUs can slip; a few months of delay pushes the MSFT revenue ramp into 2026.
Competition: CoreWeave + hyperscalers’ own build‑outs could pressure pricing/margins.
Geopolitics / execution: Heritage/Yandex optics and rapid capex scaling.
My base case: If NBIS exits 2025 near $1.0–$1.1B ARR and shows a clean MSFT ramp (plus even a credible second marquee logo), the market can pay 30–35× ARR, which puts $150 in play. Without that, I see a year‑end gravity zone around $115–$130. I’m at ~40% that we tick $150 by 12/31.