resolved Mar 18

Will OpenAI admit that the new Bing Chat AI (a.k.a Sydney) is a version of GPT-4?

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Close date updated to 2023-06-30 12:59 am

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	rocketsan	Ṁ215
2	rockenots	Ṁ197
3	mkualquiera	Ṁ168
4	Adrian	Ṁ143
5	S G	Ṁ93

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firstuserherebought Ṁ100 of YES

"We are happy to confirm that the new Bing is running on GPT-4, If you’ve used the new Bing in preview at any time in the last six weeks, you’ve already had an early look at the power of OpenAI’s latest model."

rocketsanbought Ṁ166 of YES

@firstuserhere could you link the source please?

firstuserherepredicted YES at 27%

@rocketsan https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80%99s-GPT-4

rocketsanpredicted YES at 27%

@firstuserhere Thank you. I think if OA doesn't deny this statement, the market should be resolved yes. I will wait until Saturday.

Jim Hayspredicted NO at 30%

If it wasn’t initially, but they change the underlying model then announce that it is now GPT-4 how does this resolve?

@JimHays In that case, I would resolve NO.

Here's a market about what it actually is rather than just what OpenAI admits:

Isn't the point of GPT 4 supposed to be that there will be photos and audio generated as well?

milcaunicornbought Ṁ10 of NO

@blake Well it looks like gpt-3 would be the end of the line for now until there is breakthrough in ML. This is what Open AI has openly said since the release of gpt-3, not directly, but indirectly.

rocketsan bought Ṁ554 YES from 99.3% to 99.4%

Zvi Mowshowitz bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.3%

Dylan Pratt bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.3%

mvdm sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.3%

MT sold Ṁ522 YES from 99.4% to 99.3%

fredrick slick bought Ṁ100 YES at 99.4%

fredrick slick sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.4%

Alex Semendinger sold Ṁ119 YES at 99.4%

rocketsan bought Ṁ400 YES from 99.3% to 99.4%

rocketsan bought Ṁ1,500 YES from 99.1% to 99.3%

Sylvie bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.1%

brp bought Ṁ300 YES from 99.0% to 99.1%

Reynolds bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.0%

Adrian sold Ṁ193 YES at 99.0%

j bought Ṁ100 YES at 99.0%

MT sold Ṁ495 YES from 99.1% to 99.0%

TexanElite bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 98.3% to 99.1%

zzq sold Ṁ0 NO at 98.3%

MT bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 96% to 98.3%

Peter Bennett bought Ṁ100 YES at 96%

Chinmay Deshpande bought Ṁ400 YES from 94% to 96%

rockenots sold Ṁ697 YES from 97% to 94%

Jim Hays sold Ṁ27 NO from 92% to 97%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ300 YES from 85% to 92%

Alex Semendinger bought Ṁ100 YES from 81% to 85%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ22 NO at 81%

rockenots bought Ṁ500 YES from 46% to 86%

firstuserhere sold Ṁ274 YES from 75% to 46%

Rasmus bought Ṁ46 YES from 71% to 75%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ100 YES from 62% to 71%

rocketsan bought Ṁ166 YES from 41% to 62%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ100 YES from 27% to 41%

mkualquiera bought Ṁ50 YES from 20% to 27%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ100 NO from 23% to 20%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ70 NO from 27% to 23%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ50 NO from 30% to 27%

Adrian bought Ṁ50 YES from 22% to 30%

mukimame addict bought Ṁ1 NO at 22%

Joshua sold Ṁ50 NO from 20% to 22%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ27/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled)

Jim Hays bought Ṁ100 NO from 26% to 21%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ100 NO from 33% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 33% (cancelled)

Tamay Besiroglu sold Ṁ72 YES from 43% to 31%

Phan bought Ṁ20 NO from 46% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

crot bought Ṁ40 NO from 51% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ5 YES at 51% (cancelled)

milcaunicorn bought Ṁ5 NO from 51% to 50%

milcaunicorn bought Ṁ1 YES at 51%

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Will OpenAI release a plagiarism detector which searches ChatGPT-generated content in the next year?

Will it be easy to conjure Sydney chatbot on Bing or other platforms by January 2025?

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Will it be revealed that OpenAI seek approval from the US government before releasing GPT-4 by the end of 2026?

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