Experimenting with the new market type, and a closing mechanic that hopefully makes stocks track better.
This market will close at a random time, according to a quantum random number generator (QRNG). After the market closes, we will wait for the next* market close time after 1 week has passed, and resolve to the close price from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history or another reliable source.
The QRNG will be set up to close the market in approximately 30 days, but is of course random. The listed close date will be extended if needed.
If this market works out, I will set up similar markets for other popular stocks, probably with a longer average close time.
Please give feedback, as this is an experiment to improve on existing stock prediction markets.
*Could be longer than one week given holidays or other market closures.
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is this market still running, the QRNG getting evaluated daily or however often? Seems odd that the description says it's set up with an expected close of 30 days and still hasn't closed after 3 months. I've spent some correcting it but the fees are getting quite onerous.
Short answer: yes
Long answer: I've wondered this myself. Since this is the first market I've set up this way, it's totally possible that I've screwed up the setup. But I've checked and I really think it's running as intended. I run the same code with shorter time parameters, and it works like I expect. We just landed in a weird part of the QRNG I guess?
@benmanns that's the idea. I'm hoping the fixed time horizon will make for more consistent predictions, vs fixed date markets which start out speculative and shift to converging with the actual value at the close date. If this is working properly, I think we'll see e.g. a better signal of how product announcements are expected to shift the price.