TikTok's US status unchanged by May 1?
TikTok's US status unchanged by May 1?
6
100Ṁ180May 1
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This resolves YES if Tiktok is still illegal to host in the US, but that illegality is unenforced, Tiktok remains available on the Apple and Google app stores, and Tiktok remains owned by Bytedance.
Resolve NO otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S?
Will TikTok still be accessible in the US in April 2025? (1 Year Out)
97% chance
What will be the status of TikTok in the US on June 20th 2025?
As of May 1, 2025, will the following companies or individuals have an ownership stake in TikTok (US)?
After Tiktok which other applications will be banned by the US
What will the status of TikTok be in the US by the end of 2025?
What will be the status of TikTok in the United States by EOY 2024?
Will TikTok be banned in the US or forced to change ownership by this month?
Will TikTok be available to US users in Apple and/or Google's official app store on December 31st, 2025?
68% chance
Will I be able to open TikTok.com from a computer located in the US on January 1st, 2026?
76% chance